tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1223 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1223 Southwest SAT 05:25 MCO 09:08 3% 1% 4.2% no record
WN 1341 Southwest SAT 16:41 MCO 20:26 16% 6% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 08m Dulles IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206 6h 58m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 29m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 8h 32m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 51m Houston IAH 08:28 → MCO 12:02UA 521 5h 32m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:23 → MCO 15:03DL 1123 8h 52m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 6h 54m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 35m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 7h 21m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:52 → IAH 11:15UA 753 3h 21m Houston IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496 7h 22m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:39 → DEN 14:55UA 1007 2h 57m Denver DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259 9h 02m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON