Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2456 Southwest	SAT 04:51	MDW 07:28	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3725 Southwest	SAT 12:39	MDW 15:16	12%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	7h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 22m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	7h 35m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 40m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 04m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON