tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1604 at 05:01, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1604 American Flight history → SAT 05:01 MIA 09:00 11% 3% 1.1% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 18m Houston IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:44UA 2753 5h 14m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187 8h 00m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 47m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 10m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 04m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAT 14:15 → IAH 15:27UA 6281 · flown by Mesa 3h 34m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 25m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323 8h 03m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 55m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:35 → DCA 10:56AA 1718 2h 54m Washington DCA 13:50 → MIA 16:43AA 1612 9h 08m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON