tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1233 American SAT 05:56 PHL 10:57 6% 2% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 7h 38m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 15:04 → DTW 19:09DL 2458 2h 26m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 7h 12m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → PHL 23:21DL 2703 7h 55m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → PHL 11:40UA 2203 5h 10m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279 5h 55m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:25 → PHL 17:43DL 2022 10h 13m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131 6h 35m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497 49m Detroit DTW 10:05 → PHL 11:41DL 2331 5h 30m 91% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON