tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 15:35, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4716 Southwest SAT 08:21 SAN 09:35 7% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125 9h 20m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 38m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 2h 53m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 21m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 28m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:52 → IAH 11:15UA 753 3h 15m Houston IAH 14:30 → SAN 15:48UA 1114 7h 56m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → SAN 11:25DL 843 8h 05m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SAN 20:15DL 2145 7h 49m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:52 → DEN 10:10UA 2853 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 8h 03m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON