tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:52, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 494 Alaska Flight history → SAT 16:44 SEA 19:10 30% 7% 0.9% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 8h 55m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 40m Dulles IAD 13:07 → SEA 15:54UA 1824 10h 54m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497 3h 13m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 11h 18m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 3h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 8h 19m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:19 → LAX 08:20DL 2534 3h 49m Los Angeles LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 9h 36m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481 11h 03m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 15:04 → DTW 19:09DL 2458 1h 25m Detroit DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565 9h 29m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON