tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 214 United SAT 08:33 SFO 10:30 17% 5% 0.6% no record
AS 9441 Alaska SAT 10:09 SFO 12:07 20% 6% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 04m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 12m Dulles IAD 12:39 → SFO 15:20UA 8234 10h 20m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 8h 21m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 43m Houston IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 6h 55m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902 7h 37m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:19 → LAX 08:20DL 2534 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689 8h 13m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:38 → IAH 12:43UA 1282 2h 47m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 57m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809 8h 31m 95% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON