Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2105 at 07:04, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2105 Southwest	SAT 07:04	STL 09:16	3%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609	7h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	7h 03m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700	7h 47m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	7h 10m	98%	86%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 23m Houston	IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa	4h 37m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	6h 01m	98%	82%
United Details →	SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410	3h 06m Houston	IAH 11:56 → STL 14:17UA 2042	6h 34m	97%	81%
United Details →	SAT 08:52 → DEN 10:10UA 2853	3h 15m Denver	DEN 13:25 → STL 16:33UA 1639	7h 41m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON