tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3085 at 13:36, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3085 Southwest SAT 13:36 TPA 17:15 14% 5% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 48m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 4h 15m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:40 → TPA 15:06UA 2277 7h 06m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:14DL 2264 7h 09m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525 7h 48m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497 59m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 39m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 7h 55m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 41m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 7h 32m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:52 → IAH 11:15UA 753 1h 35m Houston IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501 5h 20m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON