Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3098 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3098 SAV 06:00 → ATL 07:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3014 SAV 17:31 → ATL 18:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3098 Delta Flight history →	SAV 06:00	ATL 07:10	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 3011 Delta Flight history →	SAV 10:03	ATL 11:09	12%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 1702 Delta Flight history →	SAV 07:00	ATL 08:13	12%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 3054 Delta Flight history →	SAV 12:37	ATL 13:51	14%	4%	0.8%	92%
DL 686 Delta Flight history →	SAV 08:30	ATL 09:41	16%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 1067 Delta Flight history →	SAV 15:53	ATL 17:04	19%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 3014 Delta Flight history →	SAV 17:31	ATL 18:49	23%	6%	2.4%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON