Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2828 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2828 United Flight history →	SAV 06:15	EWR 08:27	7%	3%	1.4%	94%
UA 546 United Flight history →	SAV 14:56	EWR 17:08	33%	15%	1.2%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 06:00 → ATL 07:10DL 3098	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	98%	84%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697	5h 45m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SAV 07:00 → ATL 08:13DL 1702	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 16m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SAV 08:30 → ATL 09:41DL 686	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 13:10 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	6h 54m	100%	75%
United Details →	SAV 07:00 → IAH 08:31UA 6220 · flown by Mesa	1h 17m Houston	IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402	7h 27m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	SAV 17:14 → MSP 19:14DL 2574	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	6h 42m	87%	73%
United Details →	SAV 19:15 → IAD 21:02UA 6165 · flown by Mesa	1h 41m Dulles	IAD 22:43 → EWR 23:53UA 1997	4h 38m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	SAV 17:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3014	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	6h 15m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON