Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1056 at 13:19, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1056 SAV 13:19 → LGA 15:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1056 Delta	SAV 13:19	LGA 15:26	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 5457 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 06:00	LGA 08:11	14%	8%	3.8%	86%
DL 5267 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 12:05	LGA 14:23	31%	10%	6.1%	69%
DL 5178 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 18:50	LGA 21:10	43%	17%	10.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON