tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3228 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3228 American SAV 06:00 MIA 07:34 17% 6% 1.3% no record
MQ 4166 Envoy SAV 19:15 MIA 20:57 36% 10% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAV 06:00 → ATL 07:10DL 3098 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 7h 07m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAV 08:30 → ATL 09:41DL 686 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323 7h 13m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:45 → PHL 09:50AA 5570 · flown by PSA 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:29AA 1989 6h 44m 94% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAV 15:40 → IAH 17:12UA 6185 · flown by Mesa 1h 49m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 00m 92% 69%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 11m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:11 → DCA 09:10AA 5146 · flown by PSA 52m Washington DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401 5h 47m 85% 69%
DeltaDetails → SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → MIA 16:35DL 1386 6h 32m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → SAV 07:00 → ATL 08:13DL 1702 50m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 4h 03m 85% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON