Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5743 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day OO 5743 SAV 06:00 → ORD 07:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2499 SAV 15:45 → ORD 17:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5743 SkyWest	SAV 06:00	ORD 07:37	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 485 United	SAV 08:25	ORD 09:51	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1464 United	SAV 12:50	ORD 14:11	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4054 Envoy	SAV 12:00	ORD 13:29	26%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 2499 United	SAV 15:45	ORD 17:00	31%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON