Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:03, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Savannah). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700	5h 24m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAV 07:00 → ATL 08:13DL 1702	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	6h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:00 → ATL 07:10DL 3098	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400	4h 06m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	SAV 12:37 → ATL 13:51DL 3054	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	5h 02m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SAV 17:14 → MSP 19:14DL 2574	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609	5h 49m	92%	81%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096	7h 10m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SAV 11:22 → DTW 13:30DL 1119	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 14:33 → STL 15:17DL 1371	4h 55m	89%	78%
Delta Details →	SAV 15:53 → ATL 17:04DL 1067	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833	5h 44m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAV 15:10 → DFW 16:59AA 2048	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:02 → STL 19:53AA 2761	5h 43m	71%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON