Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3118 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3118 SBA 06:36 → DEN 10:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1790 SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3118 Southwest	SBA 06:36	DEN 10:13	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2865 United Flight history →	SBA 05:00	DEN 08:27	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 1790 United Flight history →	SBA 12:48	DEN 16:16	19%	9%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON