Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 12:24, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1822 American	SBA 12:24	DFW 17:50	28%	13%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:37 → DFW 12:40UA 1350	5h 40m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → DFW 17:23DL 2811	8h 23m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	3h 01m San Diego	SAN 17:48 → DFW 22:40AS 689	6h 58m	100%	71%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	3h 07m San Francisco	SFO 10:32 → DFW 16:15UA 2842	8h 00m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon	2h 48m San Diego	SAN 09:52 → DFW 15:13AS 545	7h 13m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	6h 43m	98%	65%
United Details →	SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790	2h 34m Denver	DEN 18:50 → DFW 21:56UA 1565	7h 08m	96%	64%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	1h 50m San Francisco	SFO 16:58 → DFW 22:35UA 1336	6h 37m	90%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SBA 12:37 → ORD 19:00UA 1009	50m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	7h 59m	56%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON