tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3739 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3739 Southwest SBA 05:26 LAS 06:54 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2329 Southwest SBA 13:56 LAS 15:19 15% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 10m San Francisco SFO 08:35 → LAS 10:21UA 1627 4h 06m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Los Angeles LAX 08:23 → LAS 09:44UA 1006 3h 44m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406 7h 07m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757 5h 37m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 5h 01m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → LAS 21:58DL 1662 5h 08m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 2h 49m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 7h 20m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Portland PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531 5h 33m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON