tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 4649 at 06:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4649 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 06:00 LAX 07:03 7% 5% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 5h 27m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 33m San Francisco SFO 08:58 → LAX 10:35UA 1457 4h 20m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 5h 46m 92% 80%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m San Francisco SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:49UA 1079 6h 46m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → LAX 22:10DL 1142 5h 20m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 27m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 18:31 → LAX 19:53UA 1799 5h 55m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 16:17 → LAX 17:51UA 1754 3h 53m 70% 52%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 48m Denver DEN 17:04 → LAX 18:27UA 3901 5h 39m 68% 52%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 48m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 5h 30m 50% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON