tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1009 United Flight history → SBA 12:37 ORD 19:00 30% 9% 0.7% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Los Angeles LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 6h 35m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258 8h 01m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 18:22 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 1958 8h 27m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 6h 35m 86% 70%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → ORD 21:20DL 2413 6h 40m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:17AA 2928 3h 43m Phoenix PHX 18:00 → ORD 23:34AA 2569 9h 03m 92% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 18:22 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 1958 6h 22m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON