tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 2178 at 07:24, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2178 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → SBA 07:24 PDX 09:49 11% 4% 1.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 5h 10m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644 7h 58m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373 5h 48m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 6h 45m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 57m San Francisco SFO 08:22 → PDX 10:25UA 5777 · flown by SkyWest 4h 10m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:43UA 1227 6h 45m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:17AA 2928 3h 30m Phoenix PHX 17:47 → PDX 20:39AA 1625 8h 08m 92% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON