tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1495 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1495 American SBA 06:09 PHX 07:54 13% 5% 1.0% no record
AA 2928 American Flight history → SBA 12:31 PHX 14:17 30% 9% 0.9% 87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431 5h 01m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496 5h 21m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 23m Portland PDX 11:08 → PHX 13:44AS 1483 6h 10m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 53m San Francisco SFO 08:18 → PHX 10:23UA 2374 4h 08m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507 7h 13m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 18:54 → PHX 20:51UA 1375 6h 53m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 10:51 → SEA 13:26AS 2143 · flown by Horizon 1h 37m Seattle SEA 15:03 → PHX 17:49AS 478 6h 58m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → PHX 18:24UA 574 4h 26m 64% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON