tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1320 Southwest SBA 11:16 SAN 12:25 16% 5% 1.5% no record
OO 3449 SkyWest SBA 14:37 SAN 15:50 20% 10% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 08m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 21:15 → SAN 22:15DL 1202 5h 25m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 48m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → SAN 09:59UA 444 3h 44m 86% 71%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → SAN 22:32UA 442 6h 29m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:24 → PDX 09:49AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 57m Portland PDX 10:46 → SAN 13:27AS 1394 6h 03m 88% 63%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 18:46 → SAN 20:22UA 1577 6h 24m 98% 63%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:17AA 2928 2h 43m Phoenix PHX 17:00 → SAN 18:24AA 480 5h 53m 92% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON