tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 469 at 18:50, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 469 Alaska SBA 18:50 SEA 21:21 28% 10% 1.0% no record
AS 2143 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 10:51 SEA 13:26 18% 0% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 2h 47m Portland PDX 12:32 → SEA 13:34AS 3038 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 5h 49m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 20:54 → SEA 23:19UA 1007 7h 16m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 5h 53m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 53m Salt Lake City SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016 5h 10m 90% 64%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 10:12 → SEA 12:22UA 500 6h 07m 100% 64%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 2h 31m San Diego SAN 17:18 → SEA 20:05AS 692 6h 23m 100% 62%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 20m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SEA 20:30UA 1097 6h 32m 97% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 59m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SEA 20:30UA 1097 4h 27m 69% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON