Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4255 at 15:51, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4255 Southwest	SBA 15:51	SMF 17:25	12%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 09:23 → SMF 11:08UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	5h 08m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SBA 07:00 → SLC 10:02DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	1h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	5h 16m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	4h 59m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	1h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582	5h 20m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	3h 06m San Diego	SAN 17:53 → SMF 19:40AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	100%	77%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	3h 28m San Francisco	SFO 18:36 → SMF 19:24UA 1862	5h 26m	98%	66%
Alaska Details →	SBA 10:51 → SEA 13:26AS 2143 · flown by Horizon	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 15:58 → SMF 17:48AS 764	6h 57m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon	1h 07m Portland	PDX 17:56 → SMF 19:33AS 793	4h 54m	77%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	47m San Diego	SAN 15:34 → SMF 17:13AS 1655	3h 31m	59%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON