tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4867 Southwest SDF 07:01 BNA 07:13 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1082 Southwest SDF 16:31 BNA 16:43 14% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:23 → MSP 17:32DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 7h 03m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:55 → DTW 09:21DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 04m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:09 → ATL 08:40DL 1610 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 21m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → BNA 15:36DL 3142 5h 19m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 14m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SDF 13:48 → IAD 15:32UA 4067 · flown by Mesa 2h 10m Dulles IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264 5h 59m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SDF 15:50 → ATL 17:22DL 3195 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → BNA 20:34DL 3002 5h 44m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SDF 09:46 → CLT 11:20AA 2099 52m Charlotte CLT 12:12 → BNA 12:39AA 2409 3h 53m 75% 61%
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 5h 31m 67% 60%
AmericanDetails → SDF 18:03 → DFW 19:23AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 3230 5h 07m 72% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON