Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4685 Republic	SDF 13:33	BOS 16:17	14%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 15:45	BOS 18:22	20%	10%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:45AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 01m Washington	DCA 09:46 → BOS 11:39AA 4337 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BOS 12:41DL 855	6h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:09 → ATL 08:40DL 1610	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 38m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:18 → BOS 14:57DL 1293	6h 47m	98%	84%
American Details →	SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic	3h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 12:54 → BOS 14:33AA 3186	6h 56m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:30 → LGA 10:49DL 5652 · flown by Republic	3h 12m New York	LGA 14:01 → BOS 15:27DL 5739 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:23 → MSP 17:32DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614	7h 33m	97%	81%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 29m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → BOS 14:02UA 1606	6h 47m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614	6h 01m	64%	54%
American Details →	SDF 11:48 → CLT 13:30AA 5922 · flown by Piedmont	55m Charlotte	CLT 14:25 → BOS 16:54AA 901	5h 06m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON