Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5145 at 12:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 SDF 12:38 → CLT 14:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2816 SDF 19:26 → CLT 20:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 12:38	CLT 14:18	11%	4%	0.9%	95%
OH 5292 PSA	SDF 14:53	CLT 16:33	14%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 1349 American	SDF 06:23	CLT 07:49	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2099 American Flight history →	SDF 09:46	CLT 11:20	20%	7%	1.1%	83%
AA 2816 American	SDF 19:26	CLT 20:57	28%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 5922 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 11:48	CLT 13:30	20%	0%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON