Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:10, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	6h 40m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 37m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	46m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	4h 16m	89%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 15:50 → ATL 17:22DL 3195	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 35m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON