Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3791 at 13:18 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3791 SDF 13:18 → DFW 14:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2813 SDF 16:19 → DFW 17:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 13:18	DFW 14:40	15%	6%	0.9%	84%
MQ 4051 Envoy	SDF 11:51	DFW 13:04	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 331 American Flight history →	SDF 06:38	DFW 08:08	17%	8%	1.4%	80%
AA 1645 American	SDF 09:05	DFW 10:33	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 18:03	DFW 19:23	20%	9%	1.8%	69%
AA 2813 American	SDF 16:19	DFW 17:44	30%	15%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON