Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5824 at 07:55, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5824 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:55	DTW 09:21	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 4947 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 17:26	DTW 18:58	35%	22%	1.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:45AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Washington	DCA 10:04 → DTW 11:55AA 5660 · flown by PSA	5h 55m	98%	87%
United Details →	SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	2h 03m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	7h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:30 → LGA 10:49DL 5652 · flown by Republic	2h 06m New York	LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122	6h 21m	100%	86%
American Details →	SDF 07:09 → ORD 07:51AA 4413 · flown by Republic	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → DTW 12:29AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 20m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476	6h 14m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → DTW 11:40DL 8861	5h 40m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:23 → MSP 17:32DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	6h 09m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:09 → ATL 08:40DL 1610	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 47m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON