Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 558 at 11:46, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 558 Southwest	SDF 11:46	HOU 13:12	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509	4h 34m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 05m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SDF 15:50 → ATL 17:22DL 3195	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 01m	99%	77%
American Details →	SDF 13:18 → DFW 14:40AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	100%	72%
American Details →	SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08AA 331	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	4h 53m	82%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON