Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4067 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 13:48	IAD 15:32	14%	6%	1.2%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	6h 16m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:23 → MSP 17:32DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → IAD 10:00DL 1324	4h 00m	91%	83%
United Details →	SDF 10:10 → ORD 10:49UA 3520 · flown by Republic	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128	5h 57m	100%	83%
American Details →	SDF 11:48 → CLT 13:30AA 5922 · flown by Piedmont	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA	5h 59m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:16 → ATL 14:48DL 1481	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	7h 07m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	1h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	5h 57m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	47m Chicago	ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 2277	4h 40m	71%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON