Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2002 Southwest	SDF 17:31	LAS 18:54	23%	9%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	3h 13m Houston	IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799	8h 59m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 37m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:55 → DTW 09:21DL 5824 · flown by Republic	2h 54m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 33m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:09 → ATL 08:40DL 1610	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466	7h 56m	96%	78%
United Details →	SDF 09:30 → IAH 10:58UA 6326 · flown by Mesa	3h 22m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	9h 07m	97%	77%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:07 → LAS 13:05UA 1803	8h 50m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → LAS 17:02DL 659	8h 45m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SDF 11:48 → CLT 13:30AA 5922 · flown by Piedmont	55m Charlotte	CLT 14:25 → LAS 16:03AA 750	7h 15m	70%	44%
Delta Details →	SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor	53m Detroit	DTW 19:51 → LAS 21:11DL 916	6h 45m	56%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON