Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5652 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 08:30	LGA 10:49	7%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 5637 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 14:10	LGA 16:30	16%	8%	1.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 16:23 → MSP 17:32DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733	7h 21m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 42m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 15:50 → ATL 17:22DL 3195	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 34m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 40m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:55 → DTW 09:21DL 5824 · flown by Republic	2h 54m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:05DL 1669	6h 10m	98%	84%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 07m Chicago	ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669	6h 11m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:16 → ATL 14:48DL 1481	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997	6h 11m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:54DL 433	6h 37m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor	55m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733	5h 49m	55%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON