Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2324 Southwest	SDF 09:21	MDW 09:50	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1159 Southwest	SDF 17:01	MDW 17:30	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 13m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 15:50 → ATL 17:22DL 3195	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 25m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:55 → DTW 09:21DL 5824 · flown by Republic	3h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 51m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 37m	98%	58%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 20m	96%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON