Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2073 American Flight history →	SDF 05:59	MIA 08:37	19%	6%	1.2%	79%
YX 4345 Republic	SDF 16:01	MIA 18:55	26%	10%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:45AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 17m Washington	DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:59AA 401	6h 59m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	5h 03m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:24 → MSP 17:32DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 18:43 → MIA 23:27DL 2187	7h 03m	88%	73%
United Details →	SDF 07:28 → IAH 09:00UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	3h 00m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	8h 19m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:09 → ATL 08:40DL 1610	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 58m	96%	71%
American Details →	SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic	1h 54m Philadelphia	PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:30AA 1989	6h 53m	97%	69%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:36 → MIA 15:44DL 1323	7h 34m	98%	69%
United Details →	SDF 15:36 → IAH 17:19UA 6310 · flown by Mesa	1h 42m Houston	IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829	7h 04m	93%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON