Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4750 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:37	PHL 09:38	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
OH 5255 PSA	SDF 15:50	PHL 18:01	13%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 16:23 → MSP 17:32DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PHL 23:21DL 2703	6h 58m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279	6h 15m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 54m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	6h 05m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 18:00 → ATL 19:35DL 1126	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 59m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	4h 41m	94%	78%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → PHL 12:31UA 729	5h 16m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:16 → ATL 14:48DL 1481	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329	6h 35m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SDF 15:41 → IAH 17:10UA 6310 · flown by Mesa	55m Houston	IAH 18:05 → PHL 22:43UA 3991 · flown by Mesa	7h 02m	75%	45%
American Details →	SDF 18:03 → DFW 19:23AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	6h 32m	74%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON