tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1052 Southwest SDF 14:31 PHX 15:38 12% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:55 → DTW 09:21DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 26m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 8h 55m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 9h 16m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 8h 57m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa 1h 58m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 19m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic 3h 26m Philadelphia PHL 13:04 → PHX 15:12AA 765 10h 35m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:45AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 15m Washington DCA 10:00 → PHX 11:44AA 1218 8h 44m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 08m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836 9h 22m 100% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON