Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 596 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 596 Southwest	SDF 06:26	TPA 08:40	5%	1%	3.5%	no record
WN 1344 Southwest	SDF 14:46	TPA 17:05	15%	5%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → TPA 11:37DL 1587	5h 37m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525	5h 58m	98%	82%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:45AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 36m Washington	DCA 10:21 → TPA 13:03AA 3126	7h 03m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 16:05 → TPA 20:19DL 2385	7h 39m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:14DL 2264	7h 25m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:09 → ATL 08:40DL 1610	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	5h 30m	96%	80%
American Details →	SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 12:43 → TPA 15:36AA 2412	7h 59m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:30 → LGA 10:49DL 5652 · flown by Republic	1h 16m New York	LGA 12:05 → TPA 15:00DL 2106	6h 30m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 15:45 → BOS 18:22DL 5615 · flown by Republic	48m Boston	BOS 19:10 → TPA 22:35DL 2234	6h 50m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON