Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3911 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 3911 SEA 08:27 → ABQ 12:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 343 SEA 19:31 → ABQ 23:18 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3911 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:27	ABQ 12:45	15%	5%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
AS 327 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:50	ABQ 13:53	19%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 343 Alaska	SEA 19:31	ABQ 23:18	27%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON