Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 7097 at 00:41 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day AS 7097 SEA 00:41 → ANC 03:23 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1336 SEA 20:07 → ANC 22:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 7097 Alaska	SEA 00:41	ANC 03:23	21%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 1332 Alaska	SEA 08:24	ANC 11:17	23%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ANC 13:17	23%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 2367 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:35	ANC 20:23	24%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 936 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	ANC 23:58	24%	6%	0.6%	73%
AS 1680 Alaska	SEA 09:51	ANC 12:49	25%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:40	ANC 16:25	26%	5%	0.6%	73%
AS 582 Alaska	SEA 19:01	ANC 21:45	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 703 Alaska	SEA 22:50	ANC 01:34	27%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1471 Alaska	SEA 22:01	ANC 00:44	27%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1683 Alaska	SEA 16:54	ANC 19:47	27%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1333 Alaska	SEA 11:45	ANC 14:40	30%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 99 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:58	ANC 18:37	31%	5%	1.1%	78%
AS 711 Alaska	SEA 20:55	ANC 23:40	31%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 83 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:39	ANC 14:27	31%	4%	0.8%	72%
AS 1408 Alaska	SEA 18:15	ANC 20:32	33%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 1381 Alaska	SEA 13:15	ANC 15:57	33%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 1336 Alaska	SEA 20:07	ANC 22:45	34%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON