Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 569 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 569 SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 334 SEA 09:05 → ATL 16:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 569 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ATL 13:53	7%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 652 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:00	ATL 07:38	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 562 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ATL 15:17	15%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 567 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:07	ATL 07:03	16%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 560 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:52	ATL 16:50	17%	5%	0.5%	87%
AS 464 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:11	ATL 07:26	20%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 542 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:35	ATL 21:47	23%	8%	0.9%	80%
AS 1645 Alaska	SEA 16:05	ATL 23:47	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 554 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:59	ATL 20:04	25%	7%	0.6%	78%
AS 334 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	ATL 16:57	26%	4%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON