Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 739 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 739 SEA 07:15 → AUS 13:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4958 SEA 14:44 → AUS 20:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 739 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	AUS 13:26	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 352 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:31	AUS 14:26	27%	4%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 848 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:50	AUS 23:53	27%	8%	0.8%	75%
AS 372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:19	AUS 00:31	28%	7%	1.1%	78%
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:43	AUS 17:42	30%	5%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
WN 4958 Southwest	SEA 14:44	AUS 20:54	31%	8%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:19 → AUS 13:17DL 1006	5h 47m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON