Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3750 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 3750 SEA 07:15 → BOI 09:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 445 SEA 21:27 → BOI 23:51 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:15	BOI 09:53	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
AS 248 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:07	BOI 09:40	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 3678 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:00	BOI 11:38	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3959 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:30	BOI 15:11	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:50	BOI 17:24	14%	5%	0.7%	88%
OO 3211 SkyWest	SEA 12:01	BOI 14:34	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3688 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:49	BOI 19:23	15%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 3692 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:40	BOI 22:18	15%	6%	0.8%	87%
AS 467 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:53	BOI 15:16	24%	4%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
AS 357 Alaska	SEA 10:14	BOI 12:40	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 445 Alaska	SEA 21:27	BOI 23:51	31%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 2061 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 15:45	BOI 18:11	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AS 2034 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 19:59	BOI 22:24	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
AS 2109 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:40	BOI 20:07	18%	2%	0.7%	82%
AS 2106 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:36	BOI 14:07	29%	4%	1.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON