Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 459 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 459 SEA 07:29 → BOS 15:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 398 SEA 00:09 → BOS 08:18 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 459 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:29	BOS 15:59	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 473 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	BOS 07:35	14%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 438 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	BOS 21:55	20%	9%	0.6%	65%
AS 288 Alaska	SEA 07:17	BOS 15:12	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:23	BOS 16:53	24%	5%	0.7%	76%
AS 214 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:58	BOS 06:51	25%	4%	0.7%	81%
AS 460 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:36	BOS 23:59	26%	7%	0.7%	80%
B6 398 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 00:09	BOS 08:18	27%	8%	0.7%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	56m Chicago	ORD 07:44 → BOS 11:07UA 659	7h 09m	85%	76%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614	7h 06m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON