Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 1388 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day AS 1388 SEA 06:18 → BUR 08:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 529 SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:48 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:18	BUR 08:49	10%	2%	1.3%	87%
AS 1395 Alaska	SEA 10:54	BUR 13:28	26%	6%	1.4%	no record
AS 530 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:14	BUR 19:34	28%	6%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AS 529 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:18	BUR 15:48	29%	5%	1.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON