Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 378 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	BWI 17:04	17%	3%	0.7%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:00 → ATL 07:38DL 652	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711	10h 07m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	2h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480	8h 15m	98%	86%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928	10h 45m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:29 → BOS 15:59DL 459	1h 06m Boston	BOS 17:05 → BWI 19:02DL 5644 · flown by Republic	8h 33m	90%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:20 → DTW 18:37DL 1706	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715	7h 16m	90%	78%
United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	56m Chicago	ORD 07:44 → BWI 10:37UA 1269	6h 39m	85%	77%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	9h 34m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:20 → BWI 21:38AA 2251	8h 16m	48%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON