Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 263 at 13:33, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 263 Alaska	SEA 13:33	CLE 20:39	29%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855	8h 49m	99%	84%
United Details →	SEA 00:58 → ORD 06:48UA 747	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389	9h 00m	98%	83%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	6h 36m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → CLE 19:35DL 2750	10h 35m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:52 → ATL 16:50DL 560	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:30DL 1339	10h 38m	98%	77%
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476	6h 57m	90%	76%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	1h 04m Houston	IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934	8h 25m	89%	76%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	9h 50m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON