Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 381 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 381 SEA 06:42 → CLT 14:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 585 SEA 12:27 → CLT 20:37 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 381 American Flight history →	SEA 06:42	CLT 14:48	12%	4%	0.7%	94%
AA 659 American	SEA 21:34	CLT 05:26	24%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 854 American Flight history →	SEA 08:26	CLT 16:32	24%	6%	0.9%	83%
AA 585 American	SEA 12:27	CLT 20:37	27%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 54m	91%	82%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231	7h 17m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	7h 17m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON